Friday, March 30, 2007

Nifty: 3798.10 +37.00 Points Sensex: 12979.66 +95.32 Points

FII Activity:
Cash Segment: 172.31 crores net sellers
Index Futures: 15.15 crores net sellers
Stock futures: 94.25 crores net buyers

Advance Decline ratio: 624:395

Outlook for 30Mar07:
Today being the first day of April Contract in F&O and backed by global strength the markets are expected to open strong. The undertone in the market is weak only. I would suggest to sell at every higher level from here on. For today, the Nifty should take support at 3783-3758-3730 and should face resistance at 3833-3860-3890.

Futures Trading Calls:

Buy Idea Cellular if sustains above 98 for target 105.
Buy Sobha Developers if sustains above 805 for target 900.

Sell Ashok Leyland at current levels for target 36.
Sell GMR Infra at every higher level with stop loss 367 for target 340 and below.
Sell Lanco Infratech if sustains below 159 for target 150.

Cash Calls:

Buy Dharani Sugars at current levels for target 27.
Buy Shreyas Shipping if sustains above 106 for target 120.

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Nifty: 3819.95 -41.10 Points Sensex: 13124.32 -161.61 Points

FII Activity:
Cash Segment: 58.07 crores net buyers
Index Futures: 136.32 crores net buyers
Stock futures: 68.51 crores net sellers

Advance Decline ratio: 297:742

Outlook for 28Mar07:
The markets are all set to open in negative on back of the global markets. FIIs have bought in the falling market on Monday. There is all possibility that the markets will recover in the later part of the day. The 20 point premium on Nifty futures both in March and April is the cause for concern. For today Nifty should take support at 3790-3768-3720 and should face resistance at 3830-3854-3887.

Futures Trading Calls:

Buy Sesa Goa at current levels for target 1835.

Cash Calls:

Buy Shakti Sugars if sustains above 71 for target 80.

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Nifty: 3861.05 -14.85 Points Sensex: 13285.93 -22.10 Points

FII Activity:
Cash Segment: 126.94 crores net buyers
Index Futures: 8.60 crores net buyers
Stock futures: 163.36 crores net sellers

Advance Decline ratio: 403:622

Outlook for 26Mar07:
The markets will be very volatile and active on Moday. The March contracts will expire this Thursday and Tuesday being a holiday the roll over will begin on Monday. Nifty should touch 4000 before the result season starts and then correct again. For Monday the Nifty should take support at 3834 and 3786 and should face resistance at 3895 and 3920.

New age private sector banks are looking good. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, UTI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Yes Bank are expected to do well in this week.

Futures Trading Calls:

Buy Century Textiles if sustains above 562 for target 590.

Cash Calls:

Buy Crompton Greaves if sustains above 205 for target 230.
Buy Pyramid Retail if sustains above 67 for target 76 (Low volume stock).

Friday, March 23, 2007

Nifty: 3875.90 +111.35 Points Sensex: 13308.03 +362.15 Points

FII Activity:
Cash Segment: 712.70 crores net buyers
Index Futures: 1848.26 crores net buyers
Stock futures: 134.12 crores net buyers

Advance Decline ratio: 726:309

Outlook for 23Mar07:
Yesterday the markets bounced back to such an extent that everyone was shocked at the up move. Look at the FIIs buy figures yesterday. They no more have any short positions in index futures. The March Nifty future has ended in a premium of 3 basis points. Even the April and May futures are trading at par with spot Nifty prices. If spot Nifty closes above 3800 today then 4000 is sure to come. For today, the possibility of markets rallying higher is thin. It might either end flat or in the negative. The Nifty should face resistance at 3900-3920-3940 and should take support at 3858-3835-3775

Futures Trading Calls:

Buy BHEL at current levels for target 2450. Keep a stop loss of 2180 on closing basis.
Buy HDFC Bank at current levels for target 1080. Keep a stop loss of 975 on closing basis.
Buy Reliance communication if sustains above 332 for target 439.
Buy Tata Motors if sustains above 815 for target 845. Keep a stop loss of 775 on a closing basis.

Cash Calls:

No Calls today.

Thursday, March 22, 2007

Nifty: 3764.55 +66.95 Points Sensex: 12945.88 +239.94 Points

FII Activity:
Cash Segment: 187.87 crores net buyers
Index Futures: 676.74 crores net buyers
Stock futures: 250.27 crores net buyers

Advance Decline ratio: 533:491

Outlook for 22Mar07:
The markets are interestingly poised at the moment. The Nifty futures has significantly lowered its discount from 30 basis points to 8 basis points. Two consecutive closes for Nifty above 3800 will take it to 4000 level. The global markets are rallying well this week. There is no doubt that the markets will open in the positive. You do not require any expert to tell that. Watch out for the intraday level of 3815 which is very crucial. There is all possibility that the indicies can reverse trend if finds good resistance at 3815. For today the Nifty should face resistance at 3785 and 3815 and should take support at 3715 and 3681.

Futures Trading Calls:

Buy Bank of Baroda if sustains above 212 for target 230.
Buy Amket Auto if sustains above 380 for target 390.

Sell Dr. Reddys at current levels with strict stop loss 692 for target 640.

Cash Calls:

Buy Yes Bank at current levels for target 148.

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Nifty: 3697.60 +18.70 Points Sensex: 12705.94 +60.95 Points

FII Activity:
Cash Segment: 147.25 crores net buyers
Index Futures: 343.79 crores net buyers
Stock futures: 211.20 crores net buyers

Advance Decline ratio: 591:439

Outlook for 21Mar07:
Markets continue to go up with low volumes. Sensex has faced resistance at the level of 12800 which was earlier a strong support area. This will be a major hurdle for the sensex going forward. For today, the Nifty will face resistance at 3728-3744-3782 and should take support at 3655-3628-3575. The asian markets are rallying for the fifth consecutive day and our markets are all set to open in the green and there is all possibility that it might close in red.

Futures Trading Calls:

Buy Jet Airways if sustains above 643 for target 690.
Buy Ultratech cement if sustains above 625 for target 670.


Cash Calls:

No Calls Today.

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Nifty: 3678.90 +70.35 Points Sensex: 12644.99 +214.59 Points

FII Activity:
Cash Segment: 5 crores net sellers
Index Futures: 352.27 crores net buyers
Stock futures: 132.35 crores net buyers

Advance Decline ratio: 605:427

Outlook for 20Mar07:
Yesterday the markets have gone up more than 2% with the lowest volumes of the month. The global cues are good and market will open strong and stay there for sometime. This not the right time to trade the market. Stay out and watch the market shape up. For today the Nifty should face resistance at 3718-3733-3770 and should take support at 3653-3630.

Futures Trading Calls:

Buy GAIL if sustains above 273 for target 288.
Buy Hindalco if closes above 133 for target 140.

Sell HCL Tech at current levels for target 290.


Cash Calls:

No Calls Today.

Monday, March 19, 2007

Nifty: 3608.55 -35.05 Points Sensex: 12430.40 -113.45 Points

FII Activity:
Cash Segment: 202.47 crores net sellers
Index Futures: 563.08 crores net sellers
Stock futures: 104.49 crores net buyers

Advance Decline ratio: 253:775

Outlook for 19Mar07:
The markets might open in the positive taking the cue from the asian markets. Then it should drift down gradually. The Nifty might find some support at its previous low of 3555. For today the support levels are 3563-3540 and find some resistance at 3623 and 3678.

Futures Trading Calls:

No Calls today.

Cash Calls:

Buy Mcleod Russel with a short term view for target 76.00

Friday, March 16, 2007

Nifty: 3643.60 +2.50 Points Sensex: 12543.85 +14.23 Points

FII Activity:
Cash Segment: 64.95 crores net sellers
Index Futures: 420.44 crores net buyers
Stock futures: 118.59 crores net buyers

Advance Decline ratio: 634:395

Outlook for 16Mar07:
The markets are looking weak only. The FIIs have started buying and the advance decline ratio is good yesterday. I expect the markets to open weak and I suggest buying at lower levels in small quantities with stop loss at 3540 below the recent lows. For the Nifty should take support at 3623 and 3550. It should face resistance at 3713 and 3780.

Bank stocks have been battered and are reaching its bottom. Start buying in small quantities. Buy Bank Nifty in small quantity.

Futures Trading Calls:

Buy ACC at current levels for target 860.

Sell ICICI Bank if remains below 805 for target 765, if takes support at those levels buy for target 860.

Sell Bharti Airtel if remains below 713 for target 703.
Sell HDFC Ltd if remains below 1498 for target 1440.
Sell Suzlon Energy if remains below 995 for target 950.

Cash Calls:

Buy Bank Of Rajasthan if sustains above 41.50 for target 45.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Outlook and trading calls for 14Mar07

Nifty: 3770.55 +35.95 Points Sensex: 12982.98 +80.35 Points

FII Activity:
Cash Segment: 24.61 crores net sellers
Index Futures: 418.95 crores net sellers
Stock futures: 74.05 crores net sellers

Advance Decline ratio: 781:248

Outlook for 14Mar07:
Expect blood bath on the dalal street today. Markets are all set to open gap down today. All the major global indicies and the asian markets are deep in the red. You can see that yesterday the markets went up and the FIIs sold in all segment. This is first sign of weakness. Our markets are not as badly poised as other markets and there is all the possibility that it will bounce back from the lower levels. For today Nifty should take support at 3715 and 3657 and should face resistance on 3782 and 3801.

Futures Trading Calls:

Sell Reliance Communications at current levels for target 405.
Sell IDFC at current levels with stop loss 91.10 for target 84.

Cash Calls:

No Calls today.

Disclaimer: The recommendations provided would be purely on my personal opinion and doesnot reflect any fund house interest or my personal holdings. I would not be responsible for the loss in trades undertaken based on my recommendations.
Outlook and Trading calls for 14Mar07

Nifty: 3770.55 +35.95 Points Sensex: 12982.98 +80.35 Points

FII Activity:

Cash Segment: 24.61 crores net sellers
Index Futures: 418.95 crores net sellers
Stock futures: 74.05 crores net sellers

Advance Decline ratio: 781:248

Outlook for 14Mar07:
Expect blood bath on the dalal street today. Markets are all set to open gap down today. All the major global indicies and the asian markets are deep in the red. You can see that yesterday the markets went up and the FIIs sold in all segment. This is first sign of weakness. Our markets are not as badly poised as other markets and there is all the possibility that it will bounce back from the lower levels. For today Nifty should take support at 3715 and 3657 and should face resistance on 3782 and 3801.

Futures Trading Calls:

Sell Reliance Communications at current levels for target 405.
Sell IDFC at current levels with stop loss 91.10 for target 84.

Cash Calls:
No Calls today.

Disclaimer: The recommendations provided would be purely on my personal opinion and doesnot reflect any fund house interest or my personal holdings. I would not be responsible for the loss in trades undertaken based on my recommendations.

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Outlook for 13Mar07

Nifty: 3734.60 +16.60 Points
Sensex: 12902.63 +17.64 Points

FII Activity:
Cash Segment: 130.53 crores net buyers
Index Futures: 864.54 crores net buyers
Stock futures: 48.50 crores net buyers
Advance Decline ratio: 632:390

Outlook for 13Mar07:

The markets appear like opening flat, but there is all possibilities that it will recover to close in positive. The markets are in a state of indecisiveness but the needle looks like tilting in favour of the bears. The Nifty should face resistance at 3787 and 3808 and should take support at 3715-3675-3654.

Futures Trading Calls:

Sell ITC at current levels for target 144.
Sell Reliance Industries at current levels with stoploss 1340 for target 1200.

Cash Calls:No Calls today.
Nifty: 3718.00 -43.65
Points Sensex: 12884.99 -164.36 Points

FII Activity:

Cash Segment: 412.37 crores net buyers
Index Futures: 240.95 crores net sellers
Stock futures: 113.37 crores net buyers
Advance Decline ratio: 465:553

Outlook for 12Mar07:

Overall the markets are looking weak only, but it can recover on Monday. The FIIs have bought on Friday’s fall which means it should recover on Monday. The levels of 3800-3850 is a major resistance and I donot see the indicies going past that level. Sell around these levels on a short term perspective.

The support and resistance levels for Monday is given below:

Nifty/SensexResistance3 -3810 13350Resistance 2- 3783 13200Resistance 1- 3745 12960
Support 1 3670 12825Support 2 3620 12600Futures

Trading Calls:

Buy M&M at current levels with strict stoploss 710 for target 785.
Sell MTNL below 140 for target 130. If unable to break 140 then buy for target 152.
Sell Orchid Chem at current levels with stoploss 240 for target 190.

Cash Calls:No Calls today.

Thursday, March 08, 2007

Outlook for 08Mar07:
The markets have exhibited strength by falling yesterday. This signifies that the markets are bottoming out. All depends on today’s close. If it closes in positive today then bullish reversal otherwise the downtrend continues. On the downside 3550 is a crucial level. If closes above 3655 then the markets are extremely bullish. Shorts have to be cautious from now on. Please book your profits on the short positions, sit on the sidelines and watch the market. You can see that FIIs have bought in all segments yesterday. For today Nifty should take support at 3580 and 3550. On the higher side it should face resistance at 3655-3715-3770.

Futures Trading Calls:

The following stocks have shown signs of bottoming out. If any of these close in positive today then buy tomorrow for short term gains.

ACC, Bajaj Auto, BEML, BHEL, Century Textiles, Dabur, Divis Lab, Guj Amb Cem, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, IDBI, IDFC, India Cements, Jet Airways, Polaris, Punj Lloyd, SBI, Titan and VSNL.

One can observe from the above list that cement and banking sectors are the one’s which are bottoming out.

Sell Patni Computers if remains below 392 for target 380.

Cash Calls:

Buy PNB Gilts if sustains above 20 for target 22.50
Buy SB&T Intl if sustains above 37 for target 52.

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Trading calls for 07Mar07

Nifty: 3655.65 +79.15
Points Sensex: 12697.09 +282.05 Points

FII Activity:

Cash Segment: 489.57 crores net sellers
Index Futures: 1337.93 crores net buyers
Stock futures: 245.29 crores net buyers
Advance Decline ratio: 487:542

Outlook for 07Mar07:

Relief rally underway. If it was a bounce back there would not have been selling in equities by FIIs. I would still suggest exit longs at higher levels. For today the Nifty should take support at 3620 and 3550. It should face resistance at 3680 and 3715. A lot depends on the global markets. If the asian markets trade in the positive then we would open in the positive. The factor to look for is the close.

Futures Trading Calls:

Buy Punj Lloyd if sustains above 780 for target 860.
Sell Bank Of India if remains below 148 for target 132.
Sell BEL at higher levels with stoploss 1550 for target 1350.
Sell IFCI at current levels for target 20.
Sell NDTV at current levels for target 275.
Sell BHEL if closes for one more day below 2120 for target 1750.****

Cash Calls:

Buy India Cements at current levels for target 180
Buy Orchid current levels for target 256-272-291-350 *****

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Trading calls for 06Mar07

Nifty: 3576.50 -150.25 Points
Sensex: 12415.04 -471.09 Points

FII Activity:

Cash Segment: 731.64 crores net sellers
Index Futures: 87.54 crores net sellers
Stock futures: 46.08 crores net sellers
Advance Decline ratio: 34:1009

Outlook for 06Mar07:

Yesterday the indicies have cut the crucial 200 DMA and today if the markets close below the low of yesterday it signals medium term bearishness. Today the asian markets have bounced back and I expect the same in India as well. Yesterday the Nifty futures opened down with a huge gap of 50 points and there is all possibility that this gap can be closed out today. For today the Nifty has support at 3550-3500-3440 and should face resistance at 3620-3660-3716.

Futures Trading Calls:

Buy CNX IT at current levels with stoploss 4820 for target 5170.
Buy Nifty futures at current levels with stoploss 3505 for target 3680.
Buy Ashok Leyland at current levels with stop loss 36 for target 40.
Buy Divis labs at current levels with stop loss 2610 for target 2900.
Buy IDFC at current levels with stop loss for target 84.50
Buy L&T at current levels with stop loss 1355 for target 1470.

Please remember: If there is a bounce back it is only a relief rally. Use all higher levels to short sell. Exit the above trades if there are decent profits. Do not wait for the targets.

Sell ACC on every higher level with stop loss 880 for target 690.

Cash Calls:

Buy TN Petro products if sustains above 19 for target 23.

Monday, March 05, 2007

Trading Calls for 05mar07

Nifty: 3726.75 -84.45 Points
Sensex: 12886.13 -273.42 Points

FII Activity:

Cash Segment: 612.70 crores net sellers
Index Futures: 46.79 crores net sellers
Stock futures: 91.16 crores net buyers
Advance Decline ratio: 336:689

Outlook for 05Mar07:

The last hope for Nifty is 3650 on a closing basis. On an intraday basis 3620-3630 a good support. I expect the markets to bounce back from these levels. Nifty futures has huge discount of 37 basis points and this cannot continue for long. The bounce back can go up till 3875 and then the downfall starts again. In the short term the markets are looking weak only.

Cement stocks have corrected sufficiently and are ready for a bounce back. If ACC, Grasim, Gujarat Ambuja and India cement closes twice below the Fridays close then there is no hope for them. It can fall another 30% from these levels

Futures Trading Calls:

Hold on to the buy calls of Friday till Nifty reaches 3870.

Friday, March 02, 2007

CALLS FOR THE DAY:

BUY: MPHASIS BFL

INVESTMENT CALL:

ZEE NEWS - TGT 60
RPL – TGT 90
NTPC – TGT 170
NIIT TECH – TGT 600


Levels for the day:
Resistance: 3861 / 3890
Support: 3760 / 3689

HOT PURSUIT:

Neyveli Lignite upbeat on Budget largesse
IFCI advances on Budget's higher non-plan allocation
Bajaj Auto eases after February sales disappoint
RCom spurts as annual wireless license fee may drop
IT pivotal strike back as additional tax seen harmless

Union Budget Analysis FY2008

Sectoral impact : Budget Impact Sectors

Positive : Capital Goods, Electrical Equipments, Food Processing/FMCG, Hotels, Logistics, Oil & Gas, Pharma, Textiles
Neutral :Auto Components, Automobiles, Banking, Media,Sugar,Information Technology
Negative: Cement, Construction

Thursday, March 01, 2007

Outlook for 01Mar07

Nifty: 3745.30 -148.60 Points
Sensex: 12938.09 -540.74 Points

FII Activity:

Cash Segment: 1931.68 crores net sellers
Index Futures: 395.51 crores net sellers
Stock futures: 343.80 crores net buyers
Advance Decline ratio: 144:884

Outlook for 01Mar07:

As expected the markets have touched the lows that I expected. It is expected to open weak today but will definitely bounce back. Most of the stocks have made a gap down yesterday and will bounce back to cover those gaps. However, the short term outlook still looks weak. Believe me, I am looking at 3610 and below that 3420 for the Nifty. You can see the selling FIIs have made in delivery. Close to 2000 crores yesterday. Those are the opportunities one should buy for long term. For today the Nifty should take support at 3720-3660-3616 and should face resistance at 3776-3835-3911.

Futures Trading Calls:

Sell BEL if remains below 1495.00 for target 1350.00

Cash Calls:

Buy SSI Ltd if sustains above 185 for target 198 and above.